On February 28, 2026, strikes on Iran set off the biggest energy shock in decades. Within weeks, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped.
That strait carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil and about a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). When it closes, every energy buyer feels it.
What happened to prices
Brent crude went from about $70 a barrel in February to about $145 in April. It eased over the summer, then jumped again in September after attacks on Saudi export routes. The September average was $114, with a daily high of $131 on September 15.
As of October 2026, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent to average about $105 in the fourth quarter and $84 in 2027. That forecast assumes the strait keeps reopening slowly.
Why U.S. natural gas held up better
U.S. natural gas is mostly produced and used here. Henry Hub, the main U.S. benchmark, is forecast to average $3.48 per MMBtu for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027.
That is a huge contrast with Europe, where gas prices reached levels last seen in late 2022.
The catch: U.S. LNG exports are at record levels, about 18 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, rising to 19 in 2027. The more gas we ship overseas, the more world events reach your gas bill.
What it means for your business
- Diesel and heating oil: EIA expects heating oil to cost about 21% more this winter than last. Fleets and oil-heated buildings take the hit first.
- Electricity: In many regions natural gas sets the price of power. Stable gas has kept most electricity contracts from spiking.
- Volatility: Suppliers price risk into fixed offers. Expect wider spreads between quotes than a year ago.
What to do now
Check when your electricity and gas contracts end. If renewal is within 12 months, start watching the market now, so you are not forced to buy on a bad day.
Ask your supplier how much of your price is energy and how much is risk premium. The answer tells you whether waiting or locking in makes more sense.
Useful tools
- The New Map by Daniel Yergin: A clear history of how oil and gas shape world politics, with a long section on the Persian Gulf.
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Sources: CSIS, Six Charts to Explain the Global Energy Crisis (Sept. 2026); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Oct. 2026).
Figures are as of October 2026.
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